"Economic forecasting has never been easy, and it becomes even more challenging in the face of unprecedented events like COVID-19 lockdowns and extraordinary levels of fiscal and monetary intervention. This was followed by a rapid cycle of interest rate hikes, adding further complexity. Look no further than the fact that for three consecutive years ( 2022, 2023, and 2024) economic forecasts at large significantly underestimated mortgage rates. Recently, however, forecasters have fared better."
"Among the 17 mortgage rate forecasts rounded up by ResiClub heading into 2025, the average prediction was that 30-year fixed mortgage rates would average 6.33% in Q4 2025. At the time we published that roundup, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was sitting at 7.03%. What happened? The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended up averaging 6.23% in Q4 2025. For our 2026 mortgage rate roundup, collected 21 mortgage rate forecasts. Some were publicly available, though most were gathered through the ResiClub 2026 Housing Economist Survey, which we fielded in December 2025."
Economic forecasting became more difficult due to COVID-19 lockdowns, large fiscal and monetary interventions, and a rapid cycle of interest rate hikes. Forecasts significantly underestimated mortgage rates for 2022, 2023, and 2024, but forecasting accuracy improved heading into late 2025. The average prediction among 17 forecasts for Q4 2025 was 6.33%, while the 30-year fixed rate actually averaged 6.23% in Q4 2025 after a 7.03% reading when published. For 2026, twenty-one forecasts were collected for the full calendar year, with variation across models and notes that weaker labor markets or Fed changes could lower rates further.
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