Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025 , Harvard economist says | Fortune

"U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was almost entirely driven by investment in data centers and information processing technology, according to Harvard economist Jason Furman. Excluding these technology-related categories, Furman calculated in a Sept. 27 post on X.com GDP growth would have been just 0.1% on an annualized basis, a near standstill that underlines the increasingly pivotal role of high-tech infrastructure in shaping macroeconomic outcomes."

"Furman's findings, shared online and echoed by financial analysts including Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times' Unhedged (the same writer who coined the term "TACO trade'), echo several months of observations on the remarkable surge in data-center infrastructure. In August, Renaissance Macro Research estimated, to date in 2025, the dollar value contributed to GDP growth by AI data-center buildout had surpassed U.S. consumer spending for the first time ever. That's remarkable considering consumer spending is two-thirds of GDP."

"Technically, as Furman notes, investment in information-processing equipment and software was only 4% of U.S. GDP for the first half of 2025, yet it also accounted for fully 92% of GDP growth over that period. Furman added it's probably not the case the U.S. economy would have recorded almost no expansion at all absent this buildout, reasoning that "absent the AI boom we would probably have lower interest rates [and] electricity prices, thus some additional growth in other sectors."

Investment in data centers and information-processing technology dominated U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Excluding these technology-related categories, GDP growth would have been roughly 0.1% annualized, effectively a near standstill. Investment in information-processing equipment and software comprised about 4% of GDP but contributed approximately 92% of GDP growth over the period. AI-driven data-center buildouts have become large enough that their dollar contribution to GDP growth reportedly exceeded U.S. consumer spending in 2025 to date. Major tech firms invested tens of billions of dollars to meet surging demand for AI computing capacity.

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