"JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said a U.S. recession could still occur in 2026, despite GDP growing 3.8% last quarter. While emphasizing that JPMorgan is prepared to navigate any downturn, Dimon said in an interview this week he isn't ruling out weakness ahead and called Washington's ongoing government shutdown "a bad idea." His cautious stance contrasts with indicators like the Sahm Rule, which currently show little sign of recession risk."
"It would be reassuring for markets to hear Jamie Dimon, the leader of America's biggest bank and a veteran of Wall Street, say he didn't see a recession coming. Unfortunately, that's not the case. In his decades leading JPMorgan Chase, Dimon's economic opinion has been seen as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy. But those who follow Dimon also know he conducts rigorous stress testing at JP, making sure the institution can withstand a range of outcomes."
"Dimon echoed this caution in an interview this week, saying: "I think [a recession] could happen in 2026-I'm not worried about it is a different statement. We'll deal with it, we'll serve our clients, we'll navigate through it. A lot of us have been through them before.""
Jamie Dimon warned that a U.S. recession could still occur in 2026 despite recent GDP growth of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025. Dimon emphasized that JPMorgan is prepared to navigate any downturn and conducts rigorous stress testing to withstand varied outcomes. He expressed concern about Washington's ongoing government shutdown, calling it "a bad idea." Analysts still weigh risks from tariffs, geopolitics, the labor market, and whether AI will meet investor expectations. Dimon framed his view as cautious rather than alarmist, noting experience dealing with prior economic downturns.
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