#core-inflation

#core-inflation

Year-on-year headline inflation in the OECD, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remained broadly stable at 4.2% in September 2025, compared with 4.1% in August. In September, it rose in 17 of the 38 OECD countries, declined in 7, and was stable or broadly stable in the remaining 14. Headline inflation in September was at or below 2.0% in 7 OECD countries.

As expected, inflation ticked slightly higher during August with rising housing, food and energy costs leading the way. Core inflation however remained stable, ensuring a rate cut in September is now a forgone conclusion. The Federal reserve having been in wait and see mode since December 2024 has been given the green light today to cut rates. Inflation has not seen large upside surprises from tariff turmoil and with recent revisions to jobs data showing almost 1 million fewer jobs than previously thought,

"June's numbers mark a slight shift from May's cooler-than-expected inflation data, but it remains unclear if and when the U.S. economy will feel the true brunt of a slew of new tariffs."