#GDP growth

#GDP growth

Chinese stocks have spent the last five years really testing the patience of even the most hardcore contrarians. Between the property sector struggles, the crackdown on tech platforms, and the constant friction over chip exports and tariffs, valuations have been pushed down across the board.

Consumers, voters, are very angry about inflation. They don't like it. I think that explains a lot of the 2024 election results and the 2025 campaigns as wellInflation by some measures ticking down a little, but still stubbornly near that 3% area, roughly where it was when President Trump took office. So, I think that's a disappointment for consumers. I think the answer to that is productivity and growth, and the Federal Reserve restraining the growth of the money supply.

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The economists who make these calls would eventually conclude that there was a short recession in 2001, but it was a curious kind of recession - and at best a borderline call. GDP never fell for two consecutive quarters. GDP was narrowly up (0.2%) in 2001 and returned to solid growth in 2002. The GDP slump was caused by a collapse in investment in telecommunications equipment.

What is the current shutdown's expected economic impact? The CBO estimate says the federal spending delay will produce short-term economic losses - largely in the fourth quarter of 2025 - that will mostly be recouped during the first quarter of 2026, assuming the shutdown ends by then. CBO projected how much the shutdown would hamper U.S. economic growth per quarter, adjusted for inflation and multiplied by four, to convert a quarterly figure into an annual one.

Its GDP growth rate of almost 3% in 2024 put it ahead of the overall EU rate of 1%, as well as the bloc's two largest economies France and Germany. France recorded a rate of 1.2% while Germany suffered a -0.2% contraction. The signs for 2025 are also positive. Poland recorded growth of 0.8% in the second quarter, the fifth best rate in the EU.

Ontario's economy is going to continue to slow this year as U.S. tariffs reduce demands for exports and businesses cut back on investments and hiring, a new report estimates. The province's real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.9 per cent this year and 1.0 per cent next year due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, says the report from the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO), released Wednesday.

Bessent criticized the weak jobs data released Friday, extending recent administration claims that the numbers aren't correct and haven't been collected properly. (Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the August report, and said without evidence that the BLS rigged the data against him.) "President Trump was elected for change, and we are going to push through with the economic policies that are going to set the economy right," Bessent said. "I believe by the fourth quarter we are going to see a substantial acceleration."

Researchers at Pantheon Macroeconomics found that AI-related spending accounted for a 0.5 percentage point difference in annualized GDP growth for the first half of the year.

China's GDP grew 5.2% in April to June, ahead of analysts' expectations of 5.1%, showcasing resilience amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.

One major drag is Russia's exorbitantly high interest rate, currently 21%, which is choking off private investment. The auto industry and mechanical engineering sectors are particularly hard hit.