#us-iran-negotiations

#us-iran-negotiations

Efforts between Washington and Tehran to reach an agreement continue to fall short, fueling concerns of return to war. Donald Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is on life support, after dismissing Tehran's response to a US peace proposal as stupid. The US president's swift rejection of Iran's response on Sunday has fuelled concerns that the 10-week-old conflict will drag on, and continue to paralyse shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Between the lines: While Pakistan has been the official mediator between the U.S. and Iran since the beginning of the war, the Qataris have been working behind the scenes. The White House views them as especially effective in negotiations with Iran, U.S. officials say.

Here's what Iran sees after being warned not to. They hit UAE and fired on a U.S. ship, and we didn't respond. Instead, we suspended the Strait of Hormuz mission. They take that as weakness. They don't think Trump is willing to bomb them again. They think they have leverage. He needs to prove them wrong.

Gold advanced further on Thursday after surging in the previous session, supported by falling long-term Treasury yields and a softer US dollar. Growing optimism surrounding a potential agreement between the United States and Iran has eased fears of a prolonged energy shock, helping reduce inflation concerns.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy thoroughfares and its effective closure since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran six weeks ago has resulted in unprecedented supply disruption.

Israeli forces bombed Iran on Saturday amid ongoing peace talks between Iran and the U.S. Explosions could be heard across Tehran. In a statement, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a special and permanent state of emergency across Israel. The Israeli government described its attack as preemptive.

Oman is mediating the process, which involves US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. The US and Israel both want to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, while keeping Tehran from expanding it regional influence and proxy militias. Iran, in its turn, is insisting that its nuclear program is peaceful, and has blustered at the attempts of limiting its influence. Its leaders, however,

The Cipher Brief spoke with former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI Norm Roule about what is likely to come next. Roule, who is also a Cipher Brief Expert, travels regularly to the region for meetings with senior leaders. We spoke with him in this exclusive interview about the risks and opportunities facing the U.S. with regard to Iran and what he believes Iran is likely to do first if the U.S. does launch a military attack.

Late last month, President Trump took to social media to issue a not-at-all-veiled threat to the theocratic rulers of Iran: Come to the negotiating table and agree to "NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS," or risk the same type of swift and violent response that plucked Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from Caracas in the middle of the night. "Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!"

It was a very good meeting, the tremendous relationship between our two Countries continues, Trump said of Israel.

There's been nothing from the U.S. side about what was discussed. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner left the meeting and Oman without talking to the press or issuing a statement. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the discussions were strictly limited to the nuclear issue, which is what Tehran wanted. And he added that the trust between the two sides remained an issue. You know, last year, Witkoff and Araghchi held a number of face-to-face meetings.

In a dramatic reversal that has kept global markets and regional allies on edge, the United States and Iran have confirmed they will move forward with high-stakes negotiations in Muscat on February 6. The talks, which appeared to have collapsed late on February 4, represent what is largely seen as a last-chance effort to avert a major military escalation in the Persian Gulf. The path to the Omani capital was anything but smooth.

The three countries that worked with the Trump administration on the Gaza ceasefire deal want U.S.-Iran negotiations to prevent a regional war. White House officials say Trump hasn't made a final decision on a strike against Iran and remains open to a diplomatic solution. U.S. officials say President Trump's recent comments about negotiations aren't a bluff, but the U.S. doesn't know if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will authorize his diplomats to cut a deal that will be acceptable to the U.S.

The wide-ranging, confidential report seen by several news agencies said Iran carried out secret nuclear activities with material not declared to the IAEA at three locations that have long been under investigation, calling it a serious concern and warning Tehran to change its course.