Inside the High-Stakes U.S. Pressure Campaign on Iran

"The Cipher Brief spoke with former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI Norm Roule about what is likely to come next. Roule, who is also a Cipher Brief Expert, travels regularly to the region for meetings with senior leaders. We spoke with him in this exclusive interview about the risks and opportunities facing the U.S. with regard to Iran and what he believes Iran is likely to do first if the U.S. does launch a military attack."

"The Cipher Brief: The U.S. is continuing to deploy military assets to the Middle East. How are you assessing the opportunities given where talks with Tehran are at the moment? What do you see as realistic U.S. objectives? Roule: You're correct to start with a focus on objectives. This will give us targets to assess risks and opportunities, as well as the report card against which the success of any strategy must be judged."

Benjamin Netanyahu expressed skepticism about any agreement with Iran and insisted any deal must address not only the nuclear program but also ballistic missiles and Iranian proxies. Ali Larijani warned that Tehran would strike U.S. bases in the region if Iran is attacked. The United States is continuing to deploy military assets to the Middle East. Norman Roule, a former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI, emphasized starting with clear objectives to assess risks, opportunities, and to establish a report card for strategy success. The U.S. National Security Strategy includes avoiding entanglement in a costly regional war or nation-building.

Read at The Cipher Brief