World politics
fromThe Cipher Brief
1 week agoTrump, Iran, and the Stress Test of Western Alliances
The Iran war tests Western alliances' cohesion and reveals NATO's internal pressures amid shifting global dynamics.
Trump, in a White House meeting with Irish Taoiseach Michael Martin on St. Patrick's Day, said NATO is making a "very foolish mistake" by not helping out with escorting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. "We don't need them but they should've been there," Trump said, reiterating what he said in his earlier Truth Social post.
Trump has governed as a hawkish interventionist whose approach better aligns with his neoconservative secretary of state, Marco Rubio, than with the anti-interventionists in his administration, such as J. D. Vance and Tulsi Gabbard. The United States is now enmeshed in so many conflicts that its foreign policy is closer to "world police" than "America First."
Well, most of the people we had in mind are dead. And now we have another group. They may be dead also based on reports. So I guess you have a third wave coming in pretty soon, we're not going to know anybody.
Meeting in Munich over the weekend, officials on both sides said they wanted to continue to work together. In the world of geopolitics all eyes were on Southern Germany over the weekend where the Munich Security Conference (MSC) served as the latest make or break moment for Germany-US relations. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered the event's opening speech in which he acknowledged that a rift has opened up with the US, and urged trans-Atlantic partners to repair and revive trust.
It's not a common phrase used in mainstream politics. I just stumbled over it. Today, we asked Grok for a definition, and here's what it said: Class-based internationalismmeans that the principle that workers and the working class across all countries share the same fundamental interest in opposing capitalism and should unite internationally, prioritizing class solidarity over national, ethnic, or even patriotic loyalties.
Late last month, President Trump took to social media to issue a not-at-all-veiled threat to the theocratic rulers of Iran: Come to the negotiating table and agree to "NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS," or risk the same type of swift and violent response that plucked Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from Caracas in the middle of the night. "Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!"
It is an honour to stand here with you today and to be among the tremendous people of Venezuela, Wright said. He then proceeded to acknowledge the tensions in recent decades between the two countries. But Wright hinted at change under the Trump administration. He also indicated the US president would take a hemisphere-wide approach to his campaign slogan, Make America Great Again.
Trump said on the eve of the hastily arranged White House meeting set to begin at 11am that he was weighing sending a second US armada to the Middle East to pressure Tehran to reach a nuclear deal. But Netanyahu, making his sixth visit to the United States since Trump took office, will also be urging the US leader to take a harder line on Iran's ballistic missile program.
Donald Trump has achieved an unlikely redemption: By pursuing a shambolic foreign policy, he has made the bygone days of "regime change" look restrained, strategic, and pragmatic by comparison. Trump campaigned in 2024 saying he would begin "no new wars," eschew "regime change" and "nation building," and generally prioritize domestic policy over foreign affairs. No more Coalition Provisional Authority, as in Iraq. No more extended U.S. military deployments, as in Afghanistan.