"It echoes the 1953 U.S.-backed coup that overthrew Iran's democratically elected leader and installed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as shah until he was deposed in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Trump's approach represents an extension of his international political strategy applied to Iran, similar to his Venezuela policy."
"The size, scope and scale of Iran's military and also the way the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is endemic in everyday life makes it very different from Venezuela. Tehran had a long time to prepare for war, and it's unlikely there will be a leadership transition that ultimately satisfies the White House."
"Although I'm sure part of the plan here is how do we get to good enough? That's what they did in Venezuela. The political costs of getting to good enough after what's been done is serious. Because for the Iranians, survival of the regime in some form is a win."
Trump has publicly opposed Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as the likely successor to Iran's leadership. Trump urged IRGC members, military personnel, and police to abandon the regime, promising total immunity or threatening death. Experts note this approach mirrors Trump's Venezuela strategy and the 1953 U.S.-backed coup overthrowing Iran's democratically elected leader. However, analysts highlight critical differences: Iran's military strength, the IRGC's deep integration into society, and Tehran's preparation for conflict make regime change unlikely. The political costs of achieving a "good enough" outcome remain substantial, as regime survival in any form constitutes a victory for Iran.
#iran-regime-change #trump-foreign-policy #irgc-military-defection #us-intervention-strategy #khamenei-succession
Read at Axios
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]