Trump loses the tariff hammer but grabs the flamethrower in the Middle East

"For more than a year, Donald Trump has pushed obsessively toward both goals, wielding tariffs like a hammer and threatening longtime allies, systemic rivals, and everyone in between. The checks and balances are beginning to push back. The Supreme Court has put an end to this divide-and-conquer tactic and thus manages to eliminate one of the main sources of uncertainty for Trumpism."

"Trump's 14 months in the White House are somewhat like the sequence between the titles of two Bergman films: Torment and Crisis. In that space of time he has undermined the international order, helped Israel turn Gaza into rubble, endangered Ukraine's defense, intervened in Venezuela, and threatened Europe and always with a supreme disregard for international law."

"The future of this conflict is uncertain: starting a war is easy, but ending one is not. Other presidents had to learn that lesson in Afghanistan, in Iraq, and in earlier wars; now it is Trump's turn to learn it with a vast country of nearly 100 million inhabitants."

Trump's 14-month presidency employed divide-and-conquer tactics through tariffs and threats against allies and rivals, creating systemic uncertainty. The Supreme Court curtailed his tariff authority, eliminating one source of instability. However, Trump escalated tensions by initiating military conflict in Iran, spreading instability across the Middle East and beyond. This conflict involves a nation of nearly 100 million people with unpredictable political, regional, and global consequences. Trump's approach mirrors historical authoritarian strategies of identifying enemies and sowing chaos. The war's economic effects remain uncertain, potentially creating stagflation similar to 1970s crises. Unlike previous presidents who learned difficult lessons in Afghanistan and Iraq, Trump now confronts the complexities of managing large-scale conflict with unclear resolution pathways.

Read at english.elpais.com