EVs are far from done, despite the dramatic decrease in sales last month, the first full month after the $7,500 federal tax credit was repealed. Compared to September, EV sales plummeted by 53%, slashing the market share in half. But that's just part of the story, as data analytics, software, and consumer intelligence company J.D. Power recently discovered. For starters, last month's steep sales dip can be partly attributed to consumers rushing to get the tax credit in September, which ballooned the numbers.
This marks the second time that Rivian has cut its sales projections this year. At the start of 2025, the company expected to sell up to 51,000 vehicles. In May, as it became clear that President Trump's tariffs and attacks on key climate policies would deal a blow to America's EV industry, Rivian cut the top end of its forecast to 46,000 units. Now it doesn't expect to meet that, either.
The question was: "What's your prediction for EV sales over the next two quarters after the EV tax credit expires?" And about 60% of you predicted a steep decline. I don't totally disagree, although I do think some automakers will try to pass along the $7,500 federal tax credit through other price reductions for at least one quarter. Automakers with fresh EV models slated for late 2025 and 2026 may be better positioned than competitors. However, tariffs are also bound to shrink margins.