Pollsters face significant challenges in obtaining accurate random samples nowadays due to changes in how people live, with the reliance on weighting further complicating predictions.
The theoretical accuracy of polling hinges on the balance between Democrats and Republicans among voters, as shifting data weightings can lead to substantial changes in poll margins.
Sample weighting relies on estimates from historical demographic participation within electorates, but the changing nature of populations complicates achieving precision in voter preference predictions.
By examining various weighting methods, a recent analysis demonstrated that discrepancies in sample selection can shift election predictions by as much as 8 points.
Collection
[
|
...
]