#political-analysis
#political-analysis

Shocking' MSNBC Analyst Can't Wrap Her Head Around Poll Suggesting Voters Think Biden Is Greater Threat to Democracy Than Trump

More than 50% of independents see Biden as a bigger threat to democracy than Trump, puzzling analysts. [ more ]

www.standard.co.uk

3 weeks ago

London

London mayoral election poll shows Susan Hall closing gap on Sadiq Khan as City Hall race hots up

Susan Hall is narrowing the gap on Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral race. [ more ]

www.independent.co.uk

UK news

Older suburban women who voted for Boris Johnson hold key to next election'

Suburban women over 60 are a crucial demographic for upcoming elections.

Undecided older female voters who switched from Conservatives hold the key to potential Labour victory. [ more ]

www.standard.co.uk

Ex-City Hall Tories say 'negative campaign' was partly to blame for Sadiq Khan's victory

The Conservative party may face nationwide extinction if it doesn't learn from the London mayoral race lessons. [ more ]

www.nytimes.com

2 weeks ago

U.K. Conservatives Hold Their Breath: How Bad Will Local Elections Be?

The outcome of local elections in England and Wales will serve as a barometer for the upcoming general election, with the Conservative Party expected to face significant losses. [ more ]

www.independent.co.uk

UK news

Boris Johnson's former adviser's blunt response when asked about Rishi Sunak

Former adviser believes Rishi Sunak won't be Tory leader in the next general election.

Sunak questioning his popularity within the Conservatives. [ more ]

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donald-trump

www.mediaite.com

4 days ago

MSNBC Analyst Calls RFK a MAGA Crazy Republican' in Latest Round of Hot Potato Over Which Side Owns the Would-Be Spoiler

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considered a potential threat to take hardline conservative votes away from Donald Trump, being perceived as a MAGA crazy Republican. [ more ]

www.mediaite.com

2 days ago

Bill O'Reilly Advises Trump to Stay Out of Crazy Land' at Campaign Rallies Because Not Being Biden is Enough for Him to Win

Bill O'Reilly advises Trump to avoid 'crazy land' during campaigning, stating Trump's advantage lies in Biden's presidency issues. [ more ]

Intelligencer

3 weeks ago

Was the Ukraine Aid Bill a Trump Defeat or a Strategic Retreat?

The successful passage of a foreign-aid package represented a significant setback for America First supporters and a personal vindication for Speaker Mike Johnson. [ more ]

silive

Republicans still stand with Trump, despite trials, controversies. It's easy to see why (opinion)

Staten Island strongly supported Donald Trump in past elections, with high percentages of votes in both the GOP primary and presidential elections.

Trump's appeal to voters, including Republicans, Democrats, and independents, has largely remained consistent since 2016, with a focus on being an anti-Washington outsider and draining the swamp. [ more ]

www.mediaite.com

He Will Take More from Trump Than Joe Biden': GOP Pollster Draws Surprising Conclusion About RFK Jr.'s Candidacy

RFK Jr. could impact the general election by drawing votes away from Donald Trump.

Voters have varying perceptions of RFK Jr. based on different factors like his environmental stance and anti-vax position. [ more ]

Queerty

Donald Trump dared TV crews to show the size of his rally crowd... and then one of them did

Trump's campaign rally in Green Bay featured his typical MAGA talking points and complaints about the media.

Despite Trump's claims of large attendance, cameras showed a significantly smaller crowd at the rally. [ more ]

www.mediaite.com

Chuck Todd Argues Biden Will Want RFK Jr. on Debate Stage, Could Weirdly' Help Biden Look Better

Chuck Todd suggests Biden could benefit from having Robert F. Kennedy Jr. join the presidential debates. [ more ]

www.mediaite.com

Bobby Kennedy Might Hurt Trump': James Carville Says RFK Jr. Likely to Siphon More Votes from Ex-President Than Biden

James Carville predicts Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would siphon more votes from Trump than Biden in 2024.

Carville warns that No Labels could be a significant threat to Democrats in the upcoming election. [ more ]

morerobert-f-kennedy-jr

BBC News

London

Having a Mayor: No shows, bridges and political hairdos

Discussion on the 2024 London Mayoral race

Impact of candidates' absence and Hammersmith Bridge issue [ more ]

www.independent.co.uk

1 week ago

Watch: Tory MP Paul Scully says he expects Labour to win general election

Labour is predicted to win the general election by a Tory MP, suggesting a need for vision over crisis management. [ more ]

www.theguardian.com

1 week ago

Tories find reasons to be cheerful despite election bloodbath

Conservatives faced a challenging local election but found some consolation in Labour not achieving all their targeted wins. [ more ]

London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com

2 weeks ago

Khan's lead down to 10 points in final poll before mayoral election

The London Mayoral Election shows a tightened race, Khan at 42% and Hall at 32% with varying levels of satisfaction towards Khan's performance. [ more ]

New York Post

6 hours ago

'Sleepy Joe' versus 'The Donald': Letters to the Editor - May 17, 2024

President Biden and former President Donald Trump have agreed to two debates. [ more ]

Harper's Magazine

2 days ago

For Joe Biden, by John R. MacArthur

Support for Biden despite criticism on policies.

Recognition of successful military withdrawal from Afghanistan. [ more ]

www.mediaite.com

2 weeks ago

What the Heck Is He Talking About?' CNN's Harry Enten Picks Apart RFK Jr.'s No Spoiler Pledge'

RFK Jr. proposes a no-spoiler pledge, suggesting that if polls show him beating Trump without Biden, Biden should drop out, yet data works against RFK Jr. [ more ]

www.mediaite.com

Splintered' GOP Is An Unprecedented Dumpster Fire': Democratic Strategist Says He's Never Seen Anything Like the State of the Republican Party

The Republican Party is facing internal strife and lack of unity, unlike the Democrats.

Key factors influencing elections include candidate strength, messaging, fundraising, and party cohesion. [ more ]

New York Post

Democrats think that simply not being Trump is enough to beat him - but it won't be

Biden needs to reach out to unenthusiastic Republicans to win the general election.

Leveraging a small percentage of alienated Republicans could significantly impact the outcome of the election. [ more ]

www.theguardian.com

Polls show Trump winning key swing states. That's partly a failure of the press | Margaret Sullivan

Public opinion polls can be unreliable, as seen in the 2016 election.

The recent Wall Street Journal poll showing Trump leading in battleground states does not predict election outcomes conclusively. [ more ]

Mission Local

22 hours ago

Dining

Varios candidatos que se postulan para supevisor(a) son nuevos(as) en sus distritos. Eso importara?

Residency may not be crucial for San Francisco local elections. [ more ]

www.independent.co.uk

6 days ago

UK news

Natalie Elphicke effect adds two points to Labour poll lead over Tories

The defection of Natalie Elphicke has helped boost Labour's poll lead by two points in just a week. [ more ]

www.aljazeera.com

Black Lives Matter

Does Israel's attack on aid workers mark a turning point for its allies?

Israel's killing of international aid workers in Gaza sparked strong condemnation from Western countries.

The incident has had a significant impact on Israel's international standing. [ more ]

www.aljazeera.com

Black Lives Matter

Does Israel need to be forced by the US to end the war in Gaza?

Biden's slow response to end Gaza war criticized by political scientist and politician

Outside power needed to blame for unachieved aims in Gaza war [ more ]

www.theguardian.com

Data science

How accurate are MRP polls predicting huge Tory losses in next general election?

MPs now face polls predicting their own electoral fate using MRP technique like multilevel regression and poststratification.

MRP polls provide detailed constituency-level predictions, allowing candidates to assess their chances based on complex models and data. [ more ]

www.mediaite.com

Rep. Ro Khanna Tells Fox News That Biden's Low Poll Numbers Will Improve Once Israel-War Ends

Rep. Ro Khanna believes Biden's low polling numbers will improve with a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Biden leads over Trump in categories like healthcare, election integrity, climate change, and abortion. [ more ]

www.nytimes.com

US Elections

Ronna McDaniel, Former R.N.C. Chair, Joins NBC News

Ronna McDaniel joins NBC News as an on-air contributor, offering a conservative perspective.

McDaniel will provide commentary on both NBC and MSNBC, adding diversity to political analysis. [ more ]

Slate Magazine

3 months ago

US Elections

We've Already Learned Something Important About How Trump Acts on Trial

The author predicted that Donald Trump would not win the Republican nomination or run a real campaign for president, but he ended up winning the first primary by 11 points.

The author questions if their liberal bias influenced their prediction, but they believe it was the failure of the GOP electorate to seize the opportunity to be rid of Trump. [ more ]

Intelligencer

3 months ago

US Elections

Why Did Anyone Think They Could Beat Donald Trump?

Republican voters overwhelmingly support Donald Trump for the nomination despite opposition

Nikki Haley's loss in New Hampshire makes Trump's path to the nomination more certain [ more ]

Sacramento Bee

California

Close November California elections will determine House majority. Here's a look at the matchups

California's congressional contests could determine House majority in 2025

Democratic opportunities to win back House majority [ more ]

www.dw.com

Europe news

Russia votes: Why does Putin bother holding elections? DW 03/14/2024

Vladimir Putin will likely win the Russian presidential election for a fifth term

Despite some opposition, the election serves to legitimize Putin's power internally and externally [ more ]

The American Conservative

Biden's State of the Union Was a Declaration of War

Biden's aggressive State of the Union speech was criticized for its lack of clarity and coherence.

Tucker Carlson's reaction to Biden's speech emphasized its negative and un-American aspects. [ more ]

www.nytimes.com

US politics

Who Won, Who Lost and What's Still Undecided From Super Tuesday

Donald Trump and President Biden emerged victorious in Super Tuesday.

Important races were decided in North Carolina and Alabama, sparking interest and setting up competitive contests. [ more ]

www.nytimes.com

4 months ago

US politics

Here's what to make of the Iowa Caucus entrance polls.

Exit polls are becoming increasingly important in political analysis.

There are two main exit-type polls: the National Election Pool (N.E.P.) Exit Poll and VoteCast. [ more ]

www.cbc.ca

Canada news

How to watch to CBC's live coverage of the Durham byelection | CBC News

Conservatives' strength test in Durham byelection

CBC News providing live coverage of the Durham byelection results [ more ]

nymag.com