After a decade of adjustments, the polling industry has not successfully captured the sentiments of Donald Trump supporters. In the 2024 election, pollsters underestimated Trump’s support by 2.9 points, only slightly improved from a 3.2 point error in 2016. While some partisan Republican pollsters demonstrated impressive accuracy, traditional university polls lagged behind. This pattern indicates a systematic issue with polling not just in elections but across various opinion surveys, challenging the idea that future polls will offer different insights. The once straightforward polling methods appear increasingly ineffective.
The polling industry still struggles to accurately gauge Donald Trump supporters, as illustrated by the underestimation of their support in both the 2016 and 2024 elections.
Despite years of introspection and advances in methodology, pollsters again failed to predict Trump’s support accurately, highlighting ongoing issues within the polling industry.
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