#model-uncertainty

[ follow ]
#coastal-storm #snow-forecast #arctic-air #climate-risk #property-modeling #real-estate #earth-system-models
fromTime Out New York
1 day ago

Is another snowstorm headed for NYC this weekend?

Right now, forecast models are split. Some keep the storm far enough out to sea to spare New York City from snowfall but others show snow reaching coastal New Jersey and Long Island late Saturday into Sunday. A shift of just 50 to 100 miles in either direction could change everything, from rain versus snow to whether the city sees accumulation at all.
New York City
Real estate
fromFlowingData
1 month ago

Zillow removed climate risk scores, because property-level modeling is not foolproof

Property-level climate risk scores are unreliable when models lack detailed, property-specific data and oversimplify hazard–built environment interactions.
Philosophy
fromAeon
2 months ago

Today's complex climate models aren't equivalent to reality | Aeon Essays

Earth System Models diverge substantially from reality, especially at regional and local scales, limiting reliable detailed local climate predictions.
fromNature
3 months ago

Uncertain climate effects of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen - Nature

The net climate effect of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) is the sum of several terms that vary in sign and are associated with substantial uncertainties. Gong et al.1 reported a net negative direct radiative forcing (RF) of Nr in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. We argue that their estimates and associated uncertainties of individual Nr climate effects, most notably aerosol, ozone and methane RF, do not reflect the current state of the art.
Environment
[ Load more ]