#european-security

#european-security

In January 2018, when Donald Trump was in the second year of his first term as US president, Angela Merkel, in her 13th year as German chancellor, gave a gloomy speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. She opened her remarks with a warning from Europe's past. Politicians had sleep-walked into the first world war. As the number of surviving eyewitnesses to the second world war dwindled, she added, subsequent generations would have to prove they understood the fragility of peace.

Donald Trump just carried out an external coup in Venezuela and kidnapped the president of that country-and he's only getting started. In the wake of this violent assertion of American dominance over the Western Hemisphere, Trump has started threatening other neighboring countries, promising interventions in Mexico, Cuba, and Colombia. And, most pertinently for Europe, he's renewing his vows to annex Greenland.

Most Europe-centric alternative proposals approach the issue from a traditional hard security perspective, not fully severing Nato ties but prioritising EU-led decision-making, often starting as a Nato-plus complement before evolving into a standalone entity. Such thinking also generally proposes major increases in military spending, an EU-based command structure independent of the US, integrated European military capabilities, a shared European nuclear deterrent, and binding mutual defence commitments.

occasions. Kallas, the former Estonian prime minister, was not just indulging in some form of historical mathematics. She was seeking to make a point that lies at the heart of the dispute between the US and Europe over Ukraine's future, a dispute that has again revealed the chasm across the Atlantic about the true nature of the Russian regime.

All issues concerning Europe, including those concerning NATO, have been removed from this plan

But the so-called 28-point plan pushed by the Trump administration has alarmed Ukraine and its European allies, who see it as a capitulation to Russian demands, particularly territorial concessions and limits on the size of Ukraine's military. Trump had set a November 27 deadline for Ukraine to accept his peace plan, but after pushback from European leaders, Washington appears to have softened its stance, with Trump saying the plan did not represent a final offer for Ukraine.

The goal is to cause an energy crisis and trigger a new refugee wave to destabilise Ukraine's European allies. As winter approaches, there is much anxiety in Ukraine. Last month, the so-called Coalition of the Willing, a group of Ukraine's allies led by France and the United Kingdom, agreed to mobilise significant resources to help Kyiv maintain its supply of electricity and central heating in big urban areas.

Verdun in the Donbas. The future of Ukraine and Russia, of European security, and of US-Russian relations now all hang on a few small half-ruined towns in the northwestern part of Donetsk province. Indeed, given the continued risk of a radical escalation leading to actual conflict between NATO and Russia, the stakes may be higher even than that.

Donald Trump one day says that Ukraine lacks the means to defeat Russia, but the next claims that Kyiv could regain control of the entire country, which was invaded by Vladimir Putin's troops more than three years ago. I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form, Trump wrote on his social network, Truth Social, on Tuesday.

Then, on a call earlier this month with the State Department, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby said that he didn't believe in the value of certainforeign military sales, according to two administration officials with knowledge of the discussion. He added that he didn't like the idea of selling Patriots-which can intercept incoming missiles-to Denmark, because they are in short supply and should be reserved for the United States to use as needed.

Well, we have a large army - over 200,000 - and we did provide a brigade for Iraq, where we were in charge of an international division, and a brigade in Afghanistan. But this is different. We are already managing a huge logistical operation. Ninety-five percent of what Ukraine gets goes through Poland. And so this time, we see our usefulness as protecting that operation on our own territory.

We'll put more there if they want, he said in the Oval Office. We're with Poland all the way, and we'll help Poland protect itself. Nawrocki, a right-wing historian and avid Trump ally who was sworn in as Poland's new president last month, thanked Trump for his commitment to continued cooperation with his country. Those relations for me, for Poland, for Poles, are very important, he said.

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Moldova has been popping up in the news with increasing frequency. The Republic of Moldova is a small country on Ukraine's southwestern border, and in the spring of 2022, it seemed possible that Russia might also invade and occupy it. This would have opened up a second front for Ukraine and brought Russia right up to the southeastern border of both the EU and NATO.

Today's meeting with the US leader presents similar dangers, but the Ukrainian president, and Europe, cannot be caught on the hop. The pressure may be more subtle and exerted by stealth, but it may feel equally overwhelming.