Financial and political pundits may sound confident, but their predictions are about as reliable as horoscopes. Human behavior is messy, emotional, and impossible to forecast with certainty.
As product designers, we often fall into the same trap. We want to believe our users are rational beings who will behave exactly as we expect; but users aren't robots.
Context changes everything, making us value—or devalue—things in irrational ways. A shirt worn by Messi is priceless; one worn by Dahmer is repulsive.
In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman offers plenty of examples of how humans defy logic. We overvalue things simply because we own them.
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