In 2025, purchase application data revealed an unforeseen growth trend, recording 16 consecutive weeks of year-over-year increases, bolstered by lower mortgage rates around 6% to 6.64%. This trend contrasts sharply with the struggles in 2024, which faced 14 weeks of negative data due to mortgage rates peaking at 7.5%. Despite a recent weekly decline of 5%, the annual comparison reflects a 13% growth, characterizing a slight positive outlook for the housing market. Improved pending home sales signal a recovery influenced by favorable lending rates.
Who would have predicted purchase application data increasing for 16 consecutive weeks on a year-over-year basis, with double-digit growth, during seasonal peak periods in 2025? And with elevated rates? Not me.
The purchase application data can be a confusing data line, so I am going to show some context for the 2025 data, which showed a 5% decline week over week but a positive 13% year-over-year growth print.
In 2024, we saw: 14 negative prints, 2 flat prints, 2 positive prints, and 0 year-over-year growth prints, creating an extreme backdrop for comparison if we experience a year in which rates decline.
As part of our weekly Housing Market Tracker data, we monitor pending home sales. Last year, when mortgage rates decreased to around 6%, we saw a noticeable improvement in total pending home sales compared to previous years.
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