U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's

"Polymarket is theoretically accessible to people all over the world. In contrast, Kalshi's products aren't available to foreign nationals and certain other excluded groups."

"We're used to using polls in election forecasting, and with polls, there's a well-understood margin of error, three percentage points usually, depending on sample size."

"In markets, there is sometimes a margin of inefficiency where any profits to be made from arbitraging price differences are not worth the effort."

"Over time, observers can collect data on these markets, determine which ones had stronger predictive track records, and come up with a consensus forecast."

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