#election-forecasting

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#betting-odds

Top data scientist: Prediction markets think Trump will win, but Harris voters have reasons to remain hopeful

Miller's real-time ticker-tape revolutionizes presidential election forecasting by utilizing betting odds instead of traditional polls.

Kamala Harris holds a 66 electoral vote lead over Donald Trump, calculates prominent data scientist

Miller's election forecasting model is based on betting odds, providing a more reliable predictor than traditional polling methods.

Top data scientist: Prediction markets think Trump will win, but Harris voters have reasons to remain hopeful

Miller's real-time ticker-tape revolutionizes presidential election forecasting by utilizing betting odds instead of traditional polls.

Kamala Harris holds a 66 electoral vote lead over Donald Trump, calculates prominent data scientist

Miller's election forecasting model is based on betting odds, providing a more reliable predictor than traditional polling methods.
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#prediction-markets

Polymarket users have wagered $3.2 billion on the outcome of the election-and the majority of bets are on Trump winning

The 2024 election featured unprecedented developments, including a sitting President being ousted by his own party and the rise of prediction markets for election betting.

Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.

Polls and prediction markets show differing predictions for election outcomes, creating an ongoing debate about their accuracy and reliability.

U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's

Two new U.S. prediction markets for the presidential election launched, allowing bets on election outcomes.

Polymarket users have wagered $3.2 billion on the outcome of the election-and the majority of bets are on Trump winning

The 2024 election featured unprecedented developments, including a sitting President being ousted by his own party and the rise of prediction markets for election betting.

Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.

Polls and prediction markets show differing predictions for election outcomes, creating an ongoing debate about their accuracy and reliability.

U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's

Two new U.S. prediction markets for the presidential election launched, allowing bets on election outcomes.
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Male Pollsters Shocked - Shocked!! - When a Woman Pollster Discovers Women Voters - emptywheel

Polling averages provide a more reliable forecast than individual polls due to increased sample size and reduced margin of error.
#polling

How to Read the Polls Ahead of the Election

Polling cannot confidently predict election outcomes due to inherent human errors and adjustments in data interpretation.

Opinion | Don't Flip Out Over Election Forecasts

Election forecasting differs from polling; it assesses probabilities rather than snapshots, which can yield contrasting predictions for candidates.

How to Read the Polls Ahead of the Election

Polling cannot confidently predict election outcomes due to inherent human errors and adjustments in data interpretation.

Opinion | Don't Flip Out Over Election Forecasts

Election forecasting differs from polling; it assesses probabilities rather than snapshots, which can yield contrasting predictions for candidates.
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Meet the Election Denier Forecasting a Trump Win in the 2024 Election

Seth Keshel's predictions on the presidential race are influenced by his belief in widespread election fraud, skewing results in favor of Donald Trump.

Nevada's Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

Jon Ralston highlights Nevada's electoral uncertainty, emphasizing a significant shift in voter registration dynamics that could favor Republicans in 2024.
#nate-silver

Nate Silver critiques the new 538 forecast model

Nate Silver critiques the new FiveThirtyEight election forecast model, emphasizing its questionable accuracy and unusual behavior.

Opinion | Nate Silver on How Kamala Harris Changed the Odds

Nate Silver applies poker strategies to politics, A.I., and venture capital in his book 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.'

Nate Silver critiques the new 538 forecast model

Nate Silver critiques the new FiveThirtyEight election forecast model, emphasizing its questionable accuracy and unusual behavior.

Opinion | Nate Silver on How Kamala Harris Changed the Odds

Nate Silver applies poker strategies to politics, A.I., and venture capital in his book 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.'
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Trump's odds have surged over the past week and he now holds a 2 vote electoral college lead, says prominent data scientist

Miller's projection model, based on historical data, outperforms polls, demonstrating its reliability in forecasting presidential elections.

Joe Biden can't get out of the hole he's already dug for himself

Trump is leading Biden in various battleground states according to recent polls.
The polling industry has faced challenges in accurately forecasting elections due to changing communication trends.

The Election Forecast That Team Biden Likes Is Just a Ticking Time Bomb

FiveThirtyEight's model gives Biden a higher chance of winning compared to other models, debunking claims of a major loss for him.

CNN Data Analyst Predicts Doom For Democrats: Biden Loss Will Cost Both House and Senate

Democrats face challenges in upcoming elections if Trump wins presidency.
Potentially, Republicans might sweep Congress if Biden's polling remains low.

The Economist's Election Forecast Shows Trump With 2 in 3 Chance of Winning the Electoral College

Former President Donald Trump currently holds a lead over President Joe Biden in The Economist's 2024 election forecasting model.
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