Despite initial fears of rising tariffs leading to mortgage rates hitting 8%, the 10-year yield's stability has led to improved mortgage rates and resilient housing demand.
In 2024, the forecast suggests a range for mortgage rates between 7.25% and 5.75%, indicating optimism as long as economic data doesn't surprise to the upside.
The dynamics in the bond market point to a potential Santa Claus rally, where demand for the 10-year yield may drive mortgage rates lower, echoing trends of previous years.
The mortgage spread conditions in 2024 have notably improved, allowing mortgage rates to reach 6% without the 10-year yield breaching the critical 3.37% level.
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