The recent bond market resilience prevented mortgage rates from spiking, holding at ranges projected for 2024, influenced by varying economic data and political signals.
Despite challenges, the mortgage spread story has improved in 2024, allowing rates to get near 6%, compared to much higher potential rates given poor spread conditions.
Forecasts indicate that if current mortgage spreads were normal, rates could be significantly lower, emphasizing the importance of spread dynamics in determining housing market stability.
Housing demand growth appears tethered to mortgage rates near 6%, with last year’s drop from 8% to mid-6% levels only slightly boosting home sales.
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