#snowfall-accumulation

#snowfall-accumulation

Timberline is the clear winner for open terrain with around 7-9 inches, while Mt. Bachelor picks up 4-5 inches but remains closed. Most Washington resorts look too warm or too dry for meaningful new snow.

The ongoing Sunday night into Monday storm across the central Andes keeps producing mainly upper-mountain snow through Monday before tapering out by Tuesday morning, April 21. A realistic near-term outcome is about 16-20 cm at Las Leñas, 9-11 cm at Valle Nevado, and lighter 5-8 cm amounts around El Colorado, La Parva, and Portillo.

The ongoing storm is expected to add 13-16 cm at Banff Sunshine and around 4-5 cm at Lake Louise by Friday morning, with the deepest moisture focused on Alberta.

From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night, the guidance lines up on a prolonged South Island storm cycle. Timing confidence is good, with snow pushing in Sunday afternoon and ramping hard Sunday night.

SWE is the most important metric for all of our water resources. It's the metric that we deal with the most and the one that the entirety of the snow research and operations community is working to get right. So, seeing an increase in SWE like that, even if it's from mid-winter rain, is a great thing because that means we have more water stored in the snowpack moving forward.

Many of us are riding the high of the recent major snowstorm wondering when the next big powder day will swing through. Unfortunately for most of North America, it looks like the snowy weather won't be returning anytime soon, or at least not for the next week. Meteorologist Chris Tomer 's Mountain Weather Update paints a rather sad picture for snowfall totals in North America between January 29th and February 5th.

Two waves drive the bulk of the snow, with a relatively higher snow level and denser snow early, followed by a colder surge that improves powder quality and brings the strongest winds. Expect long stretches of snowfall for the Sierra with only brief lulls, plus periods of wind-driven, low-visibility skiing on upper mountain. Southern California gets meaningful mountain snow as well, but snow levels are a bigger deal there and the best accumulation favors higher terrain.

Sun night (02/15) through Tue night (02/17) is the core punch, and many Sierra mountains can stack 20″-50″ in that window as snow levels crash. Expect a lighter start Sunday night, then snowfall rates ramp up hard Monday night into Tuesday with widespread coverage across Tahoe, the central Sierra, and down into Mammoth. Snow levels begin around 5,000 to 5,500 feet early, then fall into the 1,500 to 2,500-foot range by Tuesday and Tuesday night, which helps keep even lower terrain in play for all-snow.

Confidence is highest through Saturday because the individual models agree well on the timing of the Thursday storm and the following break. Southern California's mountains pick up a quick shot of snow on Thursday with strong winds, then dry out into the weekend. Beyond the weekend, the signal stays active, but model spread grows fast on storm timing, snow levels, and wind impacts, so expect meaningful swings from run to run.

WeatherAs forecasters anxiously watch models for better agreement, one thing is clear: a major winter storm-named Winter Storm Fern by The Weather Channel-is forecast to impact a vast portion of the United States this weekend, bringing a dangerous combination of heavy snow, ice, and extreme cold to much of the country. Winter Storm Fern is expected to impact more than 230 million people across roughly two-thirds of the U.S., stretching across approximately 33 states.

The midweek stretch looks like the most reliable window for fresh turns, with the steadiest snow lining up Wednesday night into Thursday and lighter add-ons into Friday. Snow levels run a little high early, then step down late week, so snow quality should improve as the storm cycle matures. Some areas could see the next wave begin as early as Sun night (02/15), but confidence drops quickly with lead time and placement.

To get back to average snowpack, we essentially need to have the most snow that we've ever had for the last 30 years between now and mid-April. It would be extremely difficult for Colorado to get back to a normal/average snowpack. As an example, when looking at the Independence Pass SNOTEL site in central Colorado outside of Aspen, we typically have 13 inches of snow-water-equivalent at the end of February. This year, we only have 6.7 inches of SWE.

This image, acquired with the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA's Terra satellite, provides a wide view of meager western snow cover on January 15. On that day, measurements derived from satellite observations showed that snow blanketed 142,700 square miles (369,700 square kilometers) of the west. That's the lowest coverage for that date in the MODIS record dating back to 2001 and less than one-third of the median. Coverage had increased slightly by January 26.

From late Saturday night through Sunday, guidance is converging on timing and warmer snow levels but diverging on intensity and ridge-top wind magnitude, with the most consistent signal for light snowfall in the northern and central ranges and limited coverage farther south. Most mountains should stay in the low single digits for accumulation during this first push, with favored terrain near the Continental Divide able to approach around 4 inches by Sunday evening.