#mortgage-spreads

#mortgage-spreads

Existing home sales may rise in 2026 if mortgage rates remain near 6% and inventory stays stable. Normalized mortgage spreads and improved supply conditions support the outlook for growth. AI Summary Existing home sales have had a nice rise since mid-June, but what will it take for this sales growth trend to continue in 2026? Over the last few years, when rates drop noticeably, sales pick up, but then mortgage rates have shot up over 7% and taken away housing's momentum.

The reason mortgage rates are near yearly lows as we end the year is that the labor market has softened and mortgage spreads have returned to near-normal levels. Without these two variables, mortgage rates would have stayed higher for longer. My 2026 forecast is for the 10-year yield to range between 3.80% and 4.60%, and for mortgage rates to range from 5.75% to 6.75%.

For most of the year, the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates have acted perfectly normally, with job growth slowing down. The 10-year yield peaked around 4.79% and mortgage rates have ranged between 6.13% and 7.25%. As the year has progressed, the 10-year yield has trended down toward 4% and has adequately accounted for the softening of the labor data.