#mortgage-spreads

#mortgage-spreads

The reason mortgage rates are near yearly lows as we end the year is that the labor market has softened and mortgage spreads have returned to near-normal levels. Without these two variables, mortgage rates would have stayed higher for longer. My 2026 forecast is for the 10-year yield to range between 3.80% and 4.60%, and for mortgage rates to range from 5.75% to 6.75%.

For most of the year, the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates have acted perfectly normally, with job growth slowing down. The 10-year yield peaked around 4.79% and mortgage rates have ranged between 6.13% and 7.25%. As the year has progressed, the 10-year yield has trended down toward 4% and has adequately accounted for the softening of the labor data.