#macroeconomic-conditions

#macroeconomic-conditions

Ken Murphy stated, 'In terms of tax pressures, industry and energy in particular, anything the government can do to help us to keep prices low for customers is welcome.' This highlights the urgent need for government intervention to support retailers.

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt global markets and oil prices, adding a persistent layer of uncertainty for UK firms. This geopolitical instability is driving higher cost pressures and intensifying concerns around supply chains and energy security, all of which are critical factors in strategic business decision making.

U.S. equity markets delivered a strong performance over the past week, supported by improving geopolitical sentiment and renewed investor confidence, with all major indices recording gains exceeding 3%.

Monthly job growth averaged about 15,000 in 2025 and has risen to roughly 70,000 so far in 2026, although the data remains volatile and subject to revision.

The World Bank's recent report argues that government intervention, when done right, can actually be an essential ingredient of economic success, reversing decades of opposition to industrial policy.

China's exports have decelerated as the Iran war starts to affect global demand and supply chains, according to Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific at French bank Natixis.

"It has nailed every recession since WWII without falsely predicting a downturn. If it is triggered, it may take a while for the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research to confirm it, but we are already in a recession."

Shipping costs have increased by more than 10 percent in the past month due to the US-Israel war on Iran. The 60-day waiver for the Jones Act aimed to lower energy costs but has had little impact on oil prices, which continue to rise amid the ongoing conflict.

behind the recent jump are primarily the weak labour market numbers, but almost all the economic data has turned soft since the end of last year. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent.

The tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed oil prices higher, raising fears of energy-driven inflation, which helped support both the dollar and Treasury yields. The 10-year yield has climbed to its highest level in roughly two weeks.

Global stock markets are bracing for falls when trading resumes on Monday after Donald Trump threatened eight European countries with fresh tariffs until they support his ambition to acquire Greenland. The US president's plan to impose new trade levies of 10% on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland from 1 February, rising to 25% on 1 June, is creating fear in the markets, and among European businesses.

U.S. financial markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors weighed strong employment data against growing concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional business models. Major stock indexes declined, led by technology-heavy shares, reflecting worries that rapid AI developments may disrupt established industries and earnings outlooks. The Nasdaq Composite recorded the steepest losses, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished lower. Value-oriented stocks continued to outperform growth stocks, extending a trend that has persisted for several weeks.

Markets were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, compressing the week's activity into four sessions. Early in the week, stocks fell sharply after renewed concerns about a potential global trade conflict. Investor sentiment weakened following comments from President Donald Trump about imposing tariffs on certain European nations in connection with negotiations over Greenland. However, midweek optimism returned when the president signalled a softer stance and postponed the planned tariffs.

The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.

The International Monetary Fund has warned mounting geopolitical tensions and an escalation of Donald Trump's tariff war could hit global economic growth and trigger a backlash in financial markets. In an update as Trump threatens to impose tariffs on Nato allies opposed to his ambitions in Greenland, the Washington-based fund said a renewed eruption in trade tensions was among the biggest risks to global growth in 2026.

Gold has been on a tear as the dollar is under pressure, raising questions about global confidence and market risk. The US economy and markets are unmatched in size. The dollar is the king of currencies, and US treasuries are often considered a safe-haven asset. But, investors appear to be reassessing that. This has weighed down on the greenback and cooled the stock markets.