#inflation-expectations

#inflation-expectations

The dominant force in play remains the Middle East conflict, which has kept oil prices elevated and inflation expectations firm. Reports that Washington is assembling a coalition to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz could offer some relief for the oil market and could weigh on the dollar.

Gold remained in a consolidation zone on Thursday as the market reacted to resilient US data and mounting geopolitical uncertainty. On the macro front, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls reduced immediate fears of labour market deterioration, weighing on gold. However, markets still anticipate two rate cuts this year. Attention now shifts to upcoming inflation data, which could reshape expectations. A stronger-than-expected print may lift yields and pressure gold, while signs of cooling prices would reinforce dovish monetary policy expectations, supporting the metal.

The two precious metals, the most classic of the "safe-haven" assets, have the tangibility and inherent scarcity to act a hedge in moments of turmoil, particularly when investors worry that politics or policy could undermine the value of the dollar or U.S. government bonds. That is why the metals' relentless rally to record highs since late last year-Gold is up 84% year-over-year and silver up a whopping 245% - has drawn attention from analysts.

The USD/JPY pair surged to a nine-day peak of 158.86 following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) first policy decision of 2026, with the momentum accelerating sharply during Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting press conference. The pair later saw a missive flush toward 157.308. While the central bank technically stood pat, the market's read of the event was one of a hawkish hold, as the divergence between official rhetoric and the surging Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields forced a frantic repricing of the yen's path.

Confidence in finding a new job is at an all-time low among workers, while job hugging-the trend where "workers hold onto their jobs for dear life"-is at an all-time high, according to a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released on Monday. The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August found respondents believed they had only a 44.9% of finding another job after losing their current one-the lowest in the survey's history since June 2013. That's 5.8% lower than in July, the previous month.