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Film
fromBusiness Insider
21 hours ago

Kalshi and Polymarket correctly predicted 19 out of 24 Oscar winners. Here are the ones they missed.

Prediction markets correctly predicted 19 of 24 Oscar winners, demonstrating crowd wisdom effectiveness in forecasting entertainment outcomes.
fromFortune
1 month ago

Kalshi maintains a 'perfect forecast record' in predicting Fed rate decisions, beating professional forecasters, study finds | Fortune

The modal Kalshi forecast, or the outcome deemed most likely by traders, has had a perfect track record from 2022 through June. "We find the Kalshi median and mode have a perfect forecast record on the day before the FOMC meeting which represents a statistically significant improvement over the fed funds futures forecast," the study's authors Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright wrote.
Business
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