#eurusd

#eurusd

Although the euro has staged a two-day rebound, the current macro landscape continues to create a clear push-and-pull dynamic for EURUSD. On the U.S. side, growth remains resilient with household demand still solid, while Europe shows divergence between a relatively stable services sector and a sluggish manufacturing base. Last week, U.S. GDP grew 3.8% q/q, durable goods orders unexpectedly jumped 2.9%, housing indicators (New and Pending Home Sales) beat forecasts, and Core PCE held steady at 0.2% m/m.

Monetary policy remains the central variable. While markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates if U.S. economic data show sufficient cooling, the European Central Bank (ECB) is inclined to keep its deposit rate steady at 2%. This divergence allows the U.S.-Eurozone real yield spread to narrow, thereby providing short-term support for the euro.