The challenges we all face are significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China.
Instead of trying to predict whiplashing oil prices, consider investing in energy ETFs like the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF and First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure. These ETFs provide exposure to sectors such as pipelines and shipping, independent of oil price fluctuations.
The conflict has driven up the price of oil and natural gas; damaged oil refineries, tanker terminals and other energy infrastructure; disrupted shipments of fertiliser that the world's farmers depend on; and damaged the confidence of businesses and consumers.
"It has nailed every recession since WWII without falsely predicting a downturn. If it is triggered, it may take a while for the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research to confirm it, but we are already in a recession."
Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain, the central bank said in a statement announcing its policy decision and referring to its Federal Open Market Committee.
The tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed oil prices higher, raising fears of energy-driven inflation, which helped support both the dollar and Treasury yields. The 10-year yield has climbed to its highest level in roughly two weeks.
Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80 by year-end, assuming roughly six weeks of Hormuz supply disruptions.
