Mexico's fertility rate has dramatically decreased from an average of seven children per woman in 1970 to 1.6 in 2023. This trend is not isolated, as many countries worldwide are experiencing similar declines. Predictions state that by 2050, over three-quarters of countries will encounter falling fertility rates. While there are concerns about long-term socioeconomic impacts, researchers advocate for nations to focus less on reversing declines and more on building resilience against these shifts. Some strategies have shown effectiveness, although a complete rebound in fertility rates is unlikely.
"There has been an absolutely incredible drop in fertility - much faster than anyone had anticipated," says Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia.
Researchers warn of ripple effects, from weakened military power and less political influence for countries with lower fertility rates, to fewer investments in green technology.
Many countries have been trying to take action, and the data suggest that some strategies are helpful - if politically fraught.
Researchers are recommending a shift in focus from reversal to resilience, seeing room for optimism even if countries can only slow the decline.
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