"The Islamic Republic responded to domestic unrest with unprecedented violence, slaughtering tens of thousands of people since protests broke out in late December. Trump warned the regime not to kill protesters and vowed help was on the way. While he reportedly held off on an attack last month, the recent arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Middle East has raised expectations that a strike is imminent."
"The U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities last year only resulted in a temporary price surge as the conflict remained limited in scope and avoided the country's oil infrastructure. In addition, the U.S. military raid last month to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro failed to move the needle much in oil markets as production wasn't interrupted. "But this one is real," McNally warned. "The markets are pricing the risk that this time the past will not indicate the future-that we could have a sustained disruption in energy flows.""
U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled potential military action against Iran following violent domestic crackdowns that have killed tens of thousands since late December. The arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier increased expectations of imminent strikes. A top energy analyst placed roughly 75% odds of an attack in days to weeks. Brent crude futures rose 5% in a week and 14% year-to-date as markets shifted from a downtrend. Past limited strikes and a failed Venezuelan operation produced only temporary price moves. Iran produced 4.7 million barrels per day last year, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt a fifth of global oil and LNG flows.
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