Energy and shipping disruptions have been driven by deliberate political actions that use chokepoints to restrict supply rather than create temporary, absorbable shocks. Russian gas cutoffs to Europe after sanctions caused energy prices to surge as countries scrambled for alternatives. Similar coercive tactics include attacks on ships in the Bab El-Mandeb shipping lane and leverage over rare earth and other critical minerals through geographic and production dominance. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted a large share of global oil flows. These events can appear unrelated when viewed individually, but a stacked pattern reveals a coercion framework that challenges traditional monetary policy assumptions.
"“A shock is surprise. A shock is the kind of thing you absorb, smooth out, and move past,” Harker wrote. “What Russia did to Europe's gas supply was none of those. It was a deliberate act, executed for political purposes, using a chokepoint Russia controlled.”"
"“I want to argue for a different word. Supply coercion.” He listed other examples, such as Houthi rebels attacking ships in Bab El-Mandeb, the strait that connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean, cutting off a vital shipping lane between Europe and Asia."
"Supply chokepoints don't have to geographic. China leverages its dominance over rare earths, while Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia and Chile are also major sources of vital minerals. The latest crisis that fits into his framework is Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz that has stopped the flow of one-fifth of the world's oil supplies."
"Looking back on the series of disruptions, Harker said each one looked like a one-off, unrelated event at the time. But the pattern only became visible when the events were stacked together. “I'm not saying we missed it. I'm saying the framework we were trained in, supply”"
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