#energy-markets

#energy-markets

I think longer term though, a revival of Venezuela's oil production may lead to additional world supply and probably would result in lower volatility and energy prices.

All strategies mix good days and bumper years with bad days and market-lagging returns. For commodities traders in 2025, it was more of the latter. Conflict in the Middle East caused volatility in oil prices. President Donald Trump's tariff policies, and their uneven implementation, led to fluctuations in the prices of crops, such as soybeans. The growing use of data centers by artificial intelligence giants has changed the outlook for electricity demand so drastically that even top investors in the space are unsure what the future holds.

The Consumer Price Index print for November lit a fire under stocks as it came in much lower than expected at 2.7%. However, many on Wall Street were quick to throw cold water on the party, saying the data was incomplete due to the government shutdown and that we need to see complete December statistics in January to make sure a lower inflation trend is indeed in place.

Expect oil to open with a sharp 7-10% gap up as risk premiums surge. But don't be fooled, this may not last...