""We think the odds favor this ceasefire either not ever sticking or unraveling if it does," McNally told Fortune, arguing the April 7 announcement of a two-week ceasefire was vague, fragile, and contradicted by Iran—not exactly justifying oil prices falling by almost $20 per barrel overnight."
""The only thing we know for sure is the president called off a larger attack," McNally said. "I am amazed at the market's willingness to price in relief so willingly. While we do see a ceasefire as an ultimate end state, we don't think we're there yet, and we think this is going to get worse before it gets better.""
The ceasefire in the ongoing war remains fragile, with continued bombings in Lebanon and uncertainty over Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz. Experts suggest that Iran may gain more influence over global energy markets, while the ceasefire could merely delay further military actions. A less likely scenario involves a return to normalcy in global energy trade, which would take time due to supply chain issues. The ceasefire's vagueness raises doubts about its longevity, with predictions that the situation may worsen before improving.
Read at Fortune
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