"The Iran conflict has driven Brent crude, the international benchmark, has soared by 17.65% this week to over $85 a barrel. That would be the biggest jump since the week to 4 March 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil has been driven up to the highest levels in 19 months by shortages worries, following attacks on refineries in the region by Iran this week, and on ships in the region."
"Ship traffic in the strait of Hormuz has ground to a near-complete halt, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center, the multinational naval advisory group. The JMIC said in a note that only two confirmed commercial transits had been observed through the strait in the past 24 hours, which were cargo ships and not tanker vessels. In normal times, around 138 vessels would pass through the strait in a 24-hour period."
"With oil prices continuing to rise, investors grew more doubtful about central bank rate cuts this year, with the prospect of hikes even coming into view. That was particularly clear for the ECB, where a hike by December moved up to a 63% chance by the close [yesterday], which is the first time in 2026 that it's been above 50%."
Brent crude oil has experienced its largest weekly jump since Russia's Ukraine invasion, driven by Iran-related regional tensions and refinery attacks. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, has nearly halted with only two commercial transits in 24 hours compared to the normal 138 vessels daily. Vessels remain anchored throughout Arabian Gulf ports as security threat ratings reach critical levels. This energy price surge complicates monetary policy, making central banks less likely to cut interest rates and increasing the probability of rate hikes, particularly for the ECB where December hike odds reached 63%.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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