""It risks treating a political outcome as predetermined, leaving too little room for the possibility that pressures from below, including from Iranian opposition voices and a war-weary public, could still shape the direction of events.""
""It also overlooks the possibility that hardening may generate not only endurance, but brittleness: a post-war system that appears more entrenched yet is less capable of absorbing internal shocks without fracturing.""
""Once the fighting ends, Tehran must somehow rehabilitate relations with its neighbors to restore the commercial and financial channels that gave the regime access to the global economy.""
""Gulf states were vital conduits for Iran in skirting Western sanctions, allowing it to generate oil revenue. But after the war, they are unlikely to go back to the earlier status quo without guarantees from Tehran on their future safety.""
Tehran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz and its population, but faces significant challenges post-conflict. President Trump threatens to devastate Iran's economy if the strait remains closed. Both Iran and Gulf states are targeting civilian and energy infrastructure, increasing postwar rebuilding costs. Iran's economy is struggling, leading to unrest. The regime's resilience should not be mistaken for guaranteed survival, as internal pressures and a war-weary public could influence future events. Post-war, Tehran must rebuild relations with Gulf states to restore economic access.
Read at Fortune
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