
"The auction has never been the real center of power, and it will not be in the future. What will decide the fate of the open web is who controls the data that drives monetization and the artificial intelligence that determines distribution. Google holds the advantage in both, yet the proposed remedies in the ad tech antitrust trial do not address it."
"Addressing data asymmetry The DOJ's divestiture plan aims to reduce reliance on Google but risks fragmenting liquidity and destabilizing publisher revenues. Google's counterproposals , focused on interoperability and data exports, may avoid disruption but preserve its closed-loop identity graph and AI edge. In short: DOJ risks overcorrection; Google risks no correction at all. Neither resolves the structural data imbalance shaping the future, because the central issue has never been the auction itself."
"The open web relies on shared liquidity but remains fragile and fragmented due to data asymmetry. Walled gardens like Meta, Amazon and TikTok control closed ecosystems with logged-in identity graphs, outcome data and integrated ad markets, advantages publishers cannot replicate. Ironically, forcing Google to spin off AdX could push it deeper into its walled gardens, YouTube, Search and AI-driven products, where it controls both distribution and monetization."
The Department of Justice's antitrust case against Google focuses on divesting ad exchange infrastructure but may miss deeper imbalances in data control and artificial intelligence. Control of user data and AI-driven distribution dictates monetization power more than auction mechanics. Google's position combines vast data assets and AI capabilities, while walled gardens like Meta, Amazon and TikTok maintain logged-in identity graphs, outcome data and integrated ad markets that publishers cannot match. Forcing a spin-off of AdX risks fragmenting liquidity and could push Google further into closed platforms, accelerating advertiser migration and weakening the open web unless remedies address data asymmetry and AI advantage.
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