"and then they spent the following eight-plus months completely ignoring their own advice. The widespread crash after Trump announced tariffs far higher than the market had priced in was a cathartic moment for politics watchers, in that the bond market yet again proved that the Illuminati are real, and they helped pull TACO Trump back from the brink. Rationality had prevailed in the wake of stunning ignorance."
"We live in the zero date options YOLO Trump world, where tomorrow only matters insofar as to whether it will exist so you can exploit it for cash. The day after tomorrow is forever and a day away, and that old average of investors holding stocks for seven years before selling them feels like another universe. As I have written before, the stock market is this way because the marginal buyer in the stock market looks a lot like the marginal buyer in crypto."
Investors recognized a clear existential political risk last April but then ignored that risk for more than eight months, allowing market complacency to grow. A sudden market crash after Trump announced much-higher-than-expected tariffs forced a reassessment, as bond markets signaled severe concern and helped pull policy back. Market behavior shifted toward short-term, risk-seeking "YOLO" strategies, with marginal buyers resembling crypto traders who prioritize immediate gains over long-term fundamentals. Bonds have been oscillating between inflation and deflation fears, reflecting political influence on interest-rate expectations. The persistence of irrational pricing has allowed asset prices to reach highs despite rising inflationary pressures and political unpredictability.
Read at Jezebel
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