The Fed's cut was 'more hawkish than anticipated,' Moody's Zandi says - and warns it won't be enough to stave off a looming jobs recession | Fortune

"Zandi said the rate cut "was right down the strike zone," matching expectations for a 25-basis-point move that brings the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%. However, "it was a more hawkish cut than anticipated," he said, citing Jerome Powell's explanation that the move was about managing "downside risks" to weakness in the job cycle, rather than launching a new cycle of rapid cuts that would give easy money."

"One dot on the infamous Fed Dot Plot, which anonymously shows the projections of each governor, conspicuously called for a larger cut and a 150-basis-point cut over the whole year, and is widely considered to be Miran's. Miran was sworn into his governorship mere hours before the meeting began, an unusual timing to start an unusual governorship. He is one of the only Fed governors in recent memory who will simultaneously be an employee in the White House,"

The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 4.00–4.25% range. The messaging emphasized managing downside risks to the job cycle rather than signaling a new cycle of rapid rate cuts. Committee dissent was minimal; July dissenters did not repeat their opposition this meeting. One projection on the dot plot called for a larger, 150-basis-point cut over the year and is widely attributed to the newly sworn-in governor Stephen Miran, highlighting political pressure for lower rates. Miran assumed his governorship hours before the meeting and will simultaneously hold a White House position, raising concerns about central bank independence.

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