""Incorporating these updated estimates of net unauthorized immigration into our full model-allowing the labor force participation rate to vary over time-yields substantially lower break-even employment growth than previously estimated.""
""The breakeven rate peaked at about 250,000 jobs per month in 2023, fell to roughly 10,000 by July 2025, and declined to near zero thereafter, averaging about -3,000 jobs per month from August to December 2025.""
The U.S. labor market has experienced a negative breakeven rate of employment growth, meaning job losses can occur without increasing the unemployment rate. Monthly job gains previously needed to absorb new workforce entrants have stagnated due to a collapse in net immigration. Economic uncertainty from trade wars has contributed to a low-hire, low-fire job market. Recent estimates indicate net unauthorized immigration was negative, leading to a modest net job loss in late 2025, with breakeven employment growth declining significantly over the years.
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