"You'd probably assume CNN was basing its probabilities on political polling, the flawed but time-tested method by which political scientists attempt to figure out which way the wind is blowing. In this case, you'd be wrong. The network based the segment on market odds on Kalshi, a predictions marketplace that takes bets on a wide variety of future event outcomes. Of course, they're not technically bets."
"For regulatory reasons, Kalshi hosts not a casino per se but the trading of prediction contracts, which trade on an open market and move in price for the same reason any asset does: supply and demand. In other words, CNN's assertion that Democrats' chances had "plummeted" was based not on polling data but on how people gambling on the election's outcome on Kalshi thought things were going."
A segment reported Democrats' chances of retaking the House fell from 83 percent in April to 63 percent by mid-October based on Kalshi market odds. The probabilities came from Kalshi, a regulated predictions marketplace that offers tradable contracts whose prices move by supply and demand rather than traditional political polling. Kalshi's contracts are treated as prediction contracts rather than casino bets for regulatory reasons. The segment relied on how traders priced the election outcome, not on polling data. The segment was later characterized as a mistake, and Kalshi announced partnerships with major networks to integrate its markets into news coverage.
Read at Slate Magazine
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