Goldman Sachs has raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession to 35% within a year, citing growing economic weakness and introduced policy changes. The bank also lowered its GDP forecast for 2025 to just 1% and raised the unemployment rate projection to 4.5%. Additionally, S&P Global has warned that U.S. economic growth forecasts are declining due to tariff impacts and policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, a CNBC survey points to new tariffs contributing to a stagflationary outlook, emphasizing the need for caution in economic planning.
Goldman Sachs has increased its recession probability to 35% within the next year, attributing this to policy changes and a slashed GDP forecast.
S&P Global highlights the downside risks to GDP growth due to U.S. policy uncertainty, predicting potential slowdowns from tariff effects.
A CNBC survey shows that new tariffs and economic uncertainty are leading to a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy.
Goldman Sachs cited White House willingness to accept near-term economic weakness as a significant reason for their raised recession outlook.
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