"The Federal Reserve has been saying for months that the labor market is solid, claiming there are no issues and attributing the softness in the data to population growth. However, many of us were skeptical of that explanation and today's jobs report is bringing home the reality that the Fed was too late in reacting to changing conditions. With the 10-year yield down toward 4.08%, expect mortgage rates to hit new yearly lows today"
"The latest jobs report was yet another disappointing outcome for the Fed, and one of the negative revisions revealed a decline in the labor market in one of the reports. What does that tell us? It tells us that the Fed is old and slow. The premise since 2022 has been that the Fed will remain as restrictive as possible until the labor market shows significant weakness."
"Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3%, also didn't change much in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Here is a chart of the unemployment rate."
The Federal Reserve attributed recent labor-market softness to population growth while maintaining a restrictive stance, but recent data indicate underestimated labor-market deterioration. Total nonfarm payrolls rose only modestly (+22,000) with little change since April and an unemployment rate around 4.3%. Job gains in health care were offset by losses in federal government and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, and a negative revision revealed further decline. Jobless claims have risen, and concerns have surfaced in manufacturing and residential construction. Falling 10-year yields have pushed mortgage rates toward yearly lows and may prompt Fed reconsideration of policy.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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