"The "low-hire, low-fire" US labor market is leaving millions on the outside looking in. It's not just recent college graduates who are struggling to find entry-level positions. Out-of-work mid-career employees are taking part-time jobs, and hiring has stalled in industries from professional services to manufacturing. More than a quarter of the jobless have been out of work more than a half-year - the highest share since the mid-2010s excluding the pandemic-era years."
""You've got a low-firing, low-hiring environment," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press briefing following the decision to lower rates. If you start to see layoffs, "that could very quickly flow into higher unemployment." Economists forecast that September's employment report, expected to publish on Friday, will show another month of anemic payrolls growth."
Low hiring and low firing have created a labor market with subdued churn, limiting flows into and out of jobs and constraining opportunities for job seekers. Hiring has stalled across professional services, manufacturing, construction, leisure and hospitality, and retail trade, and more than a quarter of the unemployed have been out of work over six months—the highest share since the mid-2010s excluding pandemic years. Employers largely retain workforces while assessing economic direction, even as some large firms announce cuts. Economists expect weak payroll growth and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, masking underemployment and workers stuck in unwanted roles.
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