Republican former President Donald Trump currently holds a 268-226 lead over Harris in the latest NPR Electoral Map of the most competitive states, just short of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Trump had led in the 'Blue Wall' states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan before Biden exited, but now the states are pure toss-ups.
Trump's leads in the 'Sun Belt' states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada have been sliced in half since Harris got in because of increased Democratic enthusiasm and her appeal to younger and nonwhite voters. Still, Trump retains small but consistent leads.
This analysis is based on more than just polling. It's also informed by reporting from the field, conversations with campaigns, and considers the history of how states have voted in the past. State polling is based on surveys aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and DDHQ/The Hill.
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