Kevin Warsh takes the oath as Federal Reserve chair in a White House ceremony, the second such swearing-in in nearly 40 years. His confirmation received the lowest Senate vote total in Fed history, largely due to concerns about whether he would act as a presidential loyalist to deliver desired rate cuts. Despite those doubts, the macro environment offers protection for maintaining policy. Inflation measures show rising headline and core PCE, with energy driving large year-over-year and month-over-month increases linked to the Iran conflict. CPI also trends upward. FOMC minutes indicate a hawkish committee stance, and markets do not price near-term cuts, giving Warsh cover to keep rates unchanged at his first meeting.
"Start with the inflation picture. Headline PCE ran at 3.5% year over year in March 2026, up from 2.83% in February, and core PCE accelerated to 3.2%. Energy was the kicker, with a 14.43% year-over-year reading and an 11.56% month-over-month spike, much of it tied to the Iran conflict that S&P Global says is doing “increasingly evident” damage to growth and prices."
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