"As of this weekend, Fed funds futures tracked by the CME Fedwatch Tool now show a 99.5% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee holds the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its April 29 meeting."
"The shift followed President Donald Trump's prime-time national address this week, where he vowed to strike Iran extremely hard over the coming weeks, threatened to bomb power plants, and downplayed U.S. reliance on the Strait of Hormuz oil."
"The International Energy Agency coordinated emergency stock releases across more than 30 countries, which have buffered but not eliminated shortages. Those supply losses flow directly into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge."
Fed funds futures show a 99.5% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the April 29 meeting. This marks a significant shift from a month ago when the chance of a hold was only 88.2%. Following President Trump's address regarding Iran, WTI crude prices surged above $110 per barrel. The International Energy Agency has coordinated emergency stock releases to address supply shortages, impacting inflation projections for 2026, which have been revised to 2.7%.
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