As the prime minister tries to rebuild momentum after a difficult few months, failure ahead of an expected autumn election would only increase fears of electoral wipeout for the Tories, who are currently trailing by 18 points.
Wellingborough may be no more than a 50-50 shot for the Conservatives. Even if Mr Sunak's party does pull off a victory, Professor Curtice said a narrow win would not make him think there has been a fundamental change. If the party loses, he said the Conservatives are heading for disaster.
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