A federal judge may soon rule on remedies that could upend Google's default search contracts, collectively worth more than $26 billion annually, including roughly $20 billion paid to Apple. The judge previously found Google holds monopoly power in search and ads, and the remedies decision could force changes to exclusivity agreements. The Department of Justice aims to curb exclusivity, while analysts note Google could reallocate billions into its Gemini AI platform and cloud services if freed from costly deals. Apple could face a notable profit hit and would need to renegotiate or pivot to alternative search partners. Smaller rivals face steep barriers and user behavior keeps Google's market share near 90% in Europe.
A federal judge is expected to issue a ruling in the coming days that could upend Google's default search contracts, valued at more than $26 billion annuall y. At the center is the company's long-standing deal with Apple, which alone receives $20 billion each year. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta already found Google held a monopoly in search and ads. His upcoming decision on remedies could reshape the economics of online search.
Jefferies analysts estimate Apple's pre-tax profits could fall by as much as 7%. The company would need to renegotiate search deals or expand partnerships with alternatives like Bing or DuckDuckGo. Yet Apple executives downplayed the risk during the trial. Senior Vice President Eddy Cue testified that even free access to Bing would not outweigh Google's superior results and monetization engine. "I don't believe there's a price in the world that Microsoft could offer us," Cue said.
Despite antitrust scrutiny, smaller competitors face steep hurdles. Barclays analysts noted that even without default payments, it would be " nearly impossible" for rivals to gain traction. Microsoft has invested $100 billion in Bing, but it still lags far behind. User behavior reinforces that dominance. In Europe, where regulators forced users to pick their default search engine, Google 's market share barely changed, holding near 90% according to StatCounter.
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