Weekly Mortgage Rates Marginally Higher as Markets Await Job Data

"Mortgage interest rates basically treaded water this week, waiting for a big market mover to make a splash. Spoiler alert: Expect that to happen tomorrow. Article continues below this ad But first, this week: The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose three basis points to 6.62% the week ending Sept. 4, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point."

"July's jobs report, which came out at the beginning of August, caught markets by surprise. The slow pace of hiring in July - 73,000 jobs added - was lower than expected, but not abysmally so. On the other hand, the downward revisions to May and June's numbers definitely qualified as abysmal. The number of jobs added in May and June was just 19,000 and 14,000, respectively. That put those months a total of 258,000 jobs lower than their initial estimates."

"Six-digit adjustments to jobs numbers aren't unheard of; July's numbers came with a 90% confidence level on a confidence interval of plus or minus 136,000. That's a lot of confidence and a lot of numbers. But basically, it means the Bureau of Labor Statistics is 90% sure that July's 73,000 job count is correct, give or take 136,000 jobs. Still, the downward revisions shook even those well-versed in employment data, and we quickly saw stocks tumble while the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut shot upward."

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose three basis points to 6.62% for the week ending Sept. 4, according to Zillow rates provided to NerdWallet; a basis point equals one one‑hundredth of a percentage point. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report due Friday could move mortgage markets because the Federal Reserve's dual mandate includes maximum employment. July's jobs report unexpectedly showed only 73,000 jobs added and included downward revisions to May and June that reduced those months by a combined 258,000 jobs. The July count had a 90% confidence interval of ±136,000, and the revisions weakened stocks while increasing odds of a Fed rate cut. Wednesday's JOLTS report provided additional labor-market context ahead of the jobs release.

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